Future of trucking

[3406E]

Genuine question. In ya”ll opinions, how long before does self driving trucks and electric take over. I saw a Tesla pulling a van the other day and it got me thinking.

[Rawze]

(08-12-2026 )3406E Wrote:  Genuine question. In ya”ll opinions, how long before does self driving trucks and electric take over. I saw a Tesla pulling a van the other day and it got me thinking.

when these trucking companies realize that it costs almost as much as another truck just to replace the batteries after a few years, .. and that the resale value of used trucks with worn out batteries will be in the dirt , then they will start to wake up?.

... just the beer talkin'.

[3406E]

I read that one of those Tesla cost 280k. That’s more than a regular speced brand new kw or Pete. A new battery is depending on size could go up to 100k. I wonder how much miles before the batteries get worn out?

[SquareOne]

On top of the initial cost, what do they cost to insure? Electric vehicles are higher to insure to begin with... Higher replacement costs usually equal higher premiums, too. Maybe the mega-fleet, self insurers wont be phased, but the average Joe's and small trucking business would be feeling the impact.

[Volvo8873]

I’d like to see those electric trucks come up to the upper Midwest/Canada and see how they peform. It might be comical…

[mikkhh]

Electric trucks are not here yet, but cars are. Brand new Nissan Leaf in Europe was like 30 000 euros, if you wanted to buy replacement battery at the dealer for your 10 year old Nissan Leaf then price for it was 40 000 euros - Dealer asks more money for new battery than new car.

Good quality batteries (that are designed to be repairable, UNLIKE CURRENT EV S) getting worn out is not the thing I would be afraid of. First Model S Teslas are 10+ years old, I have seen lots with 300 000 miles where there is plenty of battery cell capacity left (keep in mind these batteries had failed for other reasons than cells shorting out) and Panasonic cells do last and do not give up the ghost usually, UNLIKE LG element Model 3/Y. BUT there are lots of aluminium wire bond issues, moisture damages etc. It is not feasible either to replace individual cells. Battery is glued together, taking apart is not easy and top cover is not sold separately, so it means you have to hammer old cover straight etc.

Newer Chinese EV batteries are even worse repairability wise. Maybe those EV truck batteries will be filled with epoxy to make sure water and moisture can get in, but repairmen can not?.

[3406E]

(08-13-2026 )Volvo8873 Wrote:  I’d like to see those electric trucks come up to the upper Midwest/Canada and see how they peform. It might be comical…

And to add batteries don’t do well in extreme cold weather like that

[mikkhh]

Well there are over one million electric vehicles in Norway (population of 5.5 million) due to government incetives. Every third passenger vehicle is electric.

https://www.electrive.com/2026/03/03/nor...-in-fleet/

The thing is that most batteries are water cooled and heated. That means in winter batteries have to be heated up and there are losses there too, EV s can get bricked if they are left outside and just drain their batteries trying to keep batteries warm. Also cab heating takes a toll. Newer EV s have heat pumps to make them more efficient, but again more complicated.

[Rawze]

This will be expensive...




now ... Imagine EV truck getting into a fender-bender or sliding off the road in heavy rains, etc.. where the battery gets slightly damaged ... and then it costing you $100,000+ for a new battery... or 200-300k for a whole new truck as it smolders for 10+ hours, no one being able to put the fire out.

... makes me also wonder if in the future, there is some sort of required "truck EV battery burned to the ground" type of insurance out there that will eventually be required, and how affordable it will be?.